91
Score
WORLD WAR 3
RISK METER
Key Factors
Not every headline matters equally. This section highlights the handful of decisive factors — military buildups, failed diplomacy, nuclear signaling, alliance shifts — that could tip the world toward (or away from) broader conflict.
US Strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island Oil Export Hub
US forces bombed military targets including missile storage on Iran's primary oil export island on March 13, escalating direct confrontation and threatening further energy infrastructure attacks if Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue.
military
2026-03-13
Iranian Mining and Attacks on Strait of Hormuz Shipping
Iranian actions blocking the Strait of Hormuz with mines and vessel attacks have halted most shipping and driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, creating acute global economic and escalation risks amid US Marine deployments.
military
2026-03-13
Hezbollah Coordinated Rocket Barrages into Israel
Hezbollah launched over 100 rockets targeting Israeli cities in coordination with Iranian strikes, prompting intensified Israeli operations in Lebanon and expanding the regional war footprint with hundreds of casualties.
military
2026-03-12
North Korean Naval Cruise and Ballistic Missile Tests
North Korea test-fired strategic cruise missiles from its new destroyer on March 10-11 and additional ballistic missiles amid ongoing US-South Korea drills, coinciding with US asset shifts to the Middle East.
military
2026-03-11
US-Israel War on Iran — Operation Epic Fury
The US and Israel launched joint strikes on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and igniting a full-scale war across the Middle East; Iran has fired over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones at US and Israeli targets, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and Trump is demanding unconditional surrender with no negotiations in sight.
military
2026-02-28
Outlook
The active US-Israel military campaign against Iran, highlighted by strikes on Kharg Island and Iranian disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, poses the highest risk of major escalation and global energy shocks that could drag on for weeks despite internal US debates over quick exits. Geopolitical risk remains significantly elevated due to the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran entering its third week, featuring direct strikes on strategic targets, proxy attacks via Hezbollah, and severe disruptions to global oil flows. Overall, major power tensions are elevated primarily in the Middle East with contained risks elsewhere, though miscalculation could broaden involvement rapidly.
Latest News
Filtered, high-signal news items that matter most to tracking major conflict risks — avoiding noise and speculation. Each entry provides context, source credibility, and its assessed contribution to the broader risk picture.
US Deploys Marines to Middle East as Strikes Pound Iran and Oil Prices Soar
Associated Press via KSAT
2026-03-13
North Korea Fires Cruise Missiles from New Warship as US Shifts Assets to Iran Conflict
Bloomberg
2026-03-11
US Bombs Iran’s Kharg Island Oil Hub in Escalating War with Trump Warning of More Strikes
The New York Times
2026-03-13
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